Typhoon-season protocols for inter-island transit

The Philippine archipelago sits in the western North Pacific basin, which generates nearly one-third of all tropical cyclones on earth.6 The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) tracks an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with 8 to 9 making landfall.1 The season runs from June through November, with 70 percent of all systems developing between July and October.1 For a shipping company whose LCTs and bulk carriers operate on the Visayan Sea, Sibuyan Sea, Mindanao Sea, and Sulu Sea, the typhoon season is not an external risk to be managed. It is the primary operating condition.

A typhoon is not a surprise. The surprise is any operator who has not already planned for it.

Philippine typhoons follow two dominant tracks. Storms forming east of the country between 10 and 20 degrees North typically recurve northward, crossing Luzon or the Batanes group before entering the South China Sea. Storms forming further south often take a more westerly track through the Visayas, crossing the Sibuyan Sea and the Visayan Sea and producing the highest-impact events for inter-island cargo operations.

PAGASA issues two distinct maritime-relevant products during active tracking. The first is the Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS), a five-level system governing land areas and, critically, vessel movement restrictions under PCG Memorandum Circular No. 02-13.23 The second is the separate Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping, updated every six hours and tailored specifically to maritime operators.2 Our operations desk monitors both products, along with JTWC 120-hour cone projections6 and ECMWF ensemble output when track uncertainty is high.

The five PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal levels, with their regulatory implications for Majestic vessels, are:

1. 01PSWS No. 1 (39 to 61 kph winds expected within 36 hours): vessels of 1,000 gross tons or below are prohibited from sailing under PCG MC 02-13.3 All Majestic LCTs fall under this threshold. A PSWS No. 1 advisory is an immediate sailing ban for LCT operations.
2. 02PSWS No. 2 (62 to 88 kph within 24 hours): all vessels regardless of size are prohibited from sailing.3 Vessels already at sea must proceed to the nearest safe anchorage.
3. 03PSWS No. 3 (89 to 117 kph within 18 hours): widespread structural damage expected. All port operations suspended. No exceptions for cargo vessels.2
4. 04PSWS No. 4 (118 to 170 kph within 12 hours): major infrastructure damage expected. All vessels must be at anchor or secured at berth.2
5. 05PSWS No. 5 (171 kph and above within 12 hours): catastrophic conditions. All movement prohibited.2

PCG regulations require masters to plot both prevailing weather conditions and the 72-hour PAGASA forecast on navigation charts before each departure. Majestic extends this to a 96-hour planning window during active typhoon season. The critical planning question is not whether conditions at the loading port are acceptable at departure time. It is whether the vessel can reach a safe anchorage at any point along its route before forecast conditions exceed the vessel's operating limits.

Before any departure under an active weather advisory, the master and operations desk complete the following:

1. 01Review the latest PAGASA Severe Weather Bulletin and the separate Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping,2 both checked within four hours of departure. JTWC 120-hour track6 and ECMWF ensemble output are cross-referenced when PAGASA track uncertainty is elevated.
2. 02Confirm PSWS levels at the port of origin, along the planned route, and at the port of destination. Under PCG MC 02-13, the prohibition applies to all three zones, not only the departure port.3
3. 03Check NAMRIA Notice to Mariners7 and MARINA navigational warnings for hazards on the route. Confirm the destination berth is open by direct contact with the terminal operator. PPA port closure orders are verified via direct contact with the Port Manager.8
4. 04Plot safe-haven anchorages at no more than eight-hour intervals along the planned track. Each anchorage must be accessible in the forecast conditions, not merely the current conditions.3
5. 05Verify cargo securing against MARINA Philippine Merchant Marine Rules and Regulations (PMMRR) 1997 standards.4 The cargo officer signs off in writing before departure.
6. 06Log vessel weather operating limits: for LCTs, maximum Beaufort 5 with seas below 2.0 metres; for bulk carriers, Beaufort 7. These limits are briefed to the master and are non-negotiable regardless of commercial pressure.

A voyage plan without a credible abort option at every waypoint is not a plan. It is optimism.

Standard inter-island routes are optimized for efficiency. Typhoon-season routes are optimized for options. Philippine masters are required by PCG MC 02-13 to apply the Typhoon Evasion Doctrine, a formal framework for positioning a vessel relative to a cyclone's track.3 Two principles drive every route adjustment we make.

Stay in the navigable semicircle. In the Northern Hemisphere, the right semicircle of a typhoon relative to its direction of travel generates the highest wind speeds and most dangerous sea states, because the storm's rotation adds to its forward speed. Routing to the left of a storm's projected track places the vessel in the navigable semicircle, where seas are lower and the master retains more options. When no safe route is available, the PCG-prescribed response is to heave to and await an updated forecast rather than attempt a crossing.

Use the archipelago as shelter. The Philippine island network is one of the most effective natural breakwaters on any inter-island route in the world. Threading through protected passages places land masses between the vessel and open-ocean fetch, reducing significant wave height substantially even when sustained winds remain above operating limits. We actively route through Tanon Strait, Ticao Pass, Tablas Strait, and the Surigao Strait inner channel during active advisories.

PCG MC 02-13 requires masters to maintain radio contact with the nearest Coast Guard Unit (CGU) and with nearby vessels at 30-minute intervals when underway in heavy weather.3 This frequency demands that crew members already have a complete shared understanding of the voyage plan before conditions make extended radio briefings impractical. The pre-departure typhoon-readiness briefing is where that shared understanding is built.

The PCG-mandated Typhoon Evasion Doctrine requires masters to be trained in storm-relative positioning. Before any departure under an active weather advisory, the master conducts a briefing covering:

1. 01Current PSWS level at origin, along the route, and at destination, with the PAGASA forecast track and expected intensity at each waypoint.
2. 02Vessel's planned route, speed, and estimated time at each designated decision point and safe-haven anchorage.
3. 03Abort criteria: the specific PSWS level or sea-state threshold at which the vessel will alter course, reduce speed, or seek shelter, with the designated shelter port named.
4. 04Emergency muster stations, lifejacket requirements for all persons on board, and anchor-watch assignments if the vessel shelters.
5. 05Communication schedule: position report to the Majestic operations desk and to the nearest PCG station at 30-minute intervals once underway in any active advisory condition.
6. 06Cargo watch: continuous cargo securing checks during heavy weather, with the cargo officer responsible for logging any shifting or securing adjustments.

The briefing is recorded in the ship's logbook. A copy is transmitted to our shore operations desk before departure. Under PCG regulations, vessels seeking a shelter-departure exemption during an active signal must submit their voyage plan to the nearest CGU for approval before leaving berth.3 The briefing record is part of that submission.

The laycan is the window within which a charterer must present cargo for loading. During typhoon season it is the most commercially sensitive clause in any charter party. A shipper with bulk coal or cement ready at a loading terminal has a real financial interest in getting that cargo moving. A master who departs into a deteriorating weather window to honor a tight laycan absorbs all the operational risk while the charterer absorbs none of it.

MARINA's stated policy provides the regulatory foundation for how we write our weather clauses: ships should not sail if the port of destination or any area along the route is affected by even the lowest level of weather disturbance.4 That policy, codified in MARINA maritime advisories issued for each named typhoon, gives both parties in a charter party a clear and defensible basis for a weather suspension clause.

Majestic structures all typhoon-season charters with an explicit weather standby clause: laycan windows are automatically suspended when PAGASA raises PSWS No. 1 or higher at the port of loading, at the port of discharge, or at any point along the planned route. Lay-time restarts 24 hours after the signal is downgraded below No. 1 at all affected zones. Force majeure provisions cover delays caused by PCG-ordered port closures at either end of the voyage.

The Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation (PDRF) multi-hazard network now provides GIS-powered advance warnings with a seven to ten day lead time.9 This window is long enough to adjust laycan scheduling before a system enters the PAR. We share PDRF alerts with charterers as standard practice so that commercial decisions are made with the same information the operations desk is using.

Demurrage is recoverable. A vessel is not.

Most credible charterers accept this clause without negotiation. The commercial cost of a delay is known and predictable. The cost of a casualty, measured across insurance claims, cargo loss, regulatory scrutiny from MARINA and PCG, and reputational exposure, is not.

Philippine typhoons are capable of rapid intensification. A system that is a tropical depression at 0600 can reach typhoon strength by evening. When conditions change faster than scheduled updates, pre-planned divert options must be executable immediately, without waiting for new instructions from the shore desk. The PCG Typhoon Evasion Doctrine prescribes the following decision sequence for vessels underway in deteriorating conditions:

1. 01If the projected storm track has shifted and places the vessel within the storm's forecast cone within 12 hours: heave to, transmit position to PCG and the operations desk, and await the next PAGASA advisory before proceeding.
2. 02If the vessel is more than eight hours from the nearest safe anchorage and sea conditions are deteriorating toward the vessel's operating limits: make best speed to the nearest approved haven, notify the charterer of the divert, and report to the nearest PCG station.
3. 03If the vessel is within four hours of its destination and current and forecast sea states are at or below vessel operating limits: continue passage with 30-minute position reports to PCG.
4. 04If conditions at the destination port exceed safe berth limits (typically Beaufort 6 or above for an open roadstead anchorage): do not attempt entry. Divert to the designated secondary port and await PCG clearance.

Throughout any storm-avoidance maneuver, PCG MC 02-13 requires the master to maintain continuous radio contact with the nearest Coast Guard Unit and with vessels in the vicinity.3 Position reports are transmitted every 30 minutes until the vessel reaches a sheltered anchorage or the advisory is lifted.

Every weather-related divert or delay generates a post-voyage report submitted to the Majestic operations manager within 48 hours of the vessel's arrival at its final destination. The report is filed with the relevant MARINA maritime advisory number for that storm event,4 and a copy is available to the PCG on request. It covers:

1. 01Actual storm track versus the PAGASA forecast track at time of departure: did the advisory accurately predict the system's movement and intensification rate?
2. 02Sea and weather conditions encountered at each plotted waypoint: recorded Beaufort scale, wave height, and visibility.
3. 03Decision points: which specific PSWS signal level, sea state, or forecast update triggered each route change, speed adjustment, or shelter divert.
4. 04Vessel and cargo condition on arrival: any cargo shifting, securing adjustments, or structural concerns noted during transit.
5. 05Recommendations for the shelter-port list, route planning assumptions, or pre-departure checklist based on conditions encountered.

These reports feed directly into Majestic's annual typhoon-season procedure review, conducted each April before the season formally opens in June. The shelter-port list is reverified, PCG and MARINA circular updates are incorporated, and vessel operating limits are confirmed with each master. Post-voyage reports from the prior season are the primary input. Charterers who request access to these reports as part of their due diligence process receive them.

Inter-island cargo shipping in the Philippines does not run on a fixed schedule during typhoon season. It runs on weather windows, regulatory compliance, and a genuine understanding of what PAGASA, PCG, and MARINA require. The operators who move cargo reliably through typhoon season are not those who ignore the signals. They are the ones who read the forecast correctly, plan for the abort option, and know which anchorage they are heading to before the weather changes.